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山泉清清的博客

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用易信3 ul close t“扫一扫”将 408R = tylesssstylele ://syciq.p 让我们重温上一轮牛市,算一算不同壑档阶段时的A股持仓账户活跃度, 4年上半年,壑档在:0 0点周围一直处于窄幅震荡行情中,A股持仓账户活跃度一直在15%左右打转转。

也就是说e">个持有A股的人中 15/spa在交易,其他人都趴着不动,壑档交易比较冷清el=野樗孀臕股持仓账户数搿幅 怠

意味着有部分b 者实在忍受不了死气沉沉的壑档,斩仓走人,这部分人倒在了黎明之前,没能等到 J械牡嚼础R痪涿浴澳偷米〖拍拍苁氐米》被薄

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4年7月底, A股持仓账户活跃度上升为21%,相对于:0 4年初15%左右的活跃度来说,壑档已经略微趋暖。

之后,经过3个月的上涨,指数上升到第一个台阶,23 0点左右,此时,A股持仓账户活跃度为26%,壑档 似飨陨仙

而与此相反的现象是此时A股持仓账户数为5257.69万户,相对于7月底的5296.8万户还在下降,与活跃度指标的变化方向背离。

说明嗅觉灵敏的资金已经开 莱铮笾缶醯娜嘶乖诶氲担绻颐羌嵝袍值抵写嬖诖厦鞯淖式瘕期敲淳涂梢匀衔馐币丫 J械奈兜懒恕

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再过3个月,到:0 5年1月底,大盘站上第二个台阶,tar0点左右,A股持仓账户活跃度骤然上升为35%。

再过3个月,大盘站上第三台阶上4ar0点左右,A股持仓账户活跃度为61%,交易很频繁,壑档相当火爆,这时风险已经很大。

在大盘向最高峰5178.19点发起冲锋的过程中,A股持仓账户活跃度不断攀升,最高达到73%的恐怖值,但A股持仓账户数却悄然下降。

从6366.28万户变化至4833.65万户,两个指标再次背离,意味着后知后觉的人头脑发热还在频繁交易,而聪明的资金早已嗅出风险el=那某防耄馐 J幸簿涂煲チ恕

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之后,壑档一路跌跌撞撞,A股持仓账户活跃度也不断下降,截至:0 6年10月14日el该指标为29%,离73%的顶值已相去甚远。

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运用A股持仓账户活跃度的技巧

从上面的分析纘" ,运用该指标有以下技巧:

1、一般来说,A股持仓账户数与A股持仓账户活跃度两个指标应该是同方向变化,如果出现背离的现象要重点 。大盘低位背离,大概率是一轮牛市div鸬悖淮笈谈呶槐忱耄虼蟾怕适且宦峙J衐i终点。

2、A股持仓账户活跃度上升至:0%时视为机会指标,重点 ;上升至50%以上时,视为风险指标,注意减仓。

3、长线资金可将该指标作为资产配置依据,活跃度较低时多配置股票资产,活跃度较高时降低股票资产的比例。

观察壑档的维度有多个,A股持仓账户活跃度也是一个观察窗口。对当前壑档来说,活跃度指标值为29%,与 J谐跗鹗钡21%已经很接近。

这说明当前壑档已经接近底部,不必惊慌。至于下一轮牛市何时启动,还要随时监测A股持仓账户活跃度的变化,追随聪明资金 r_mloftetylessss (function(){ b="24wumiiRel40 dI ss= -ryt ztag fcr_mlofte lae id="r"btlink" srwb b/syciq.pde clasg-rsidebar"> tyless"">"btlink" style""> tyless"">"btlink" style"">"btlink" stylele" 转发至宋⒉ <">"btlink" sty :/="24annershto heigh //syciq.toL

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让我们重温上一轮牛市,算一算不同壑档阶段时的A股持仓账户活跃度, 4年上半年,壑档在:0 0点周围一直处于窄幅震荡行情中,A股持仓账户活跃度一直在15%左右打转转。 \n

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意味着有部分b 者实在忍受不了死气沉沉的壑档,斩仓走人,这部分人倒在了黎明之前,没能等到 J械牡嚼础R痪涿浴澳偷米〖拍拍苁氐米》被薄 \n

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